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|Title: ||Activity-based travel demand modeling system in suburban area|
|Other Titles: ||Ji yu huo dong de jiao qu jiao tong xu qiu jian mo ti xi|
|Authors: ||Lin, Hongzhi (林宏志)|
|Department: ||Department of Management Sciences|
|Degree: ||Doctor of Philosophy|
|Issue Date: ||2009|
|Publisher: ||City University of Hong Kong|
|Subjects: ||Choice of transportation.|
|Notes: ||CityU Call Number: HE336.C5 L56 2009|
124 leaves : ill. 30 cm.
Thesis (Ph.D.)--City University of Hong Kong, 2009.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 112-124)
|Abstract: ||Transportation problems such as congestion and air pollution are
attracting more attention than ever. Transportation strategies such as
congestion pricing and construction of infrastructure have been adopted
to alleviate the problems. However, these strategies all involve great cost.
Therefore, accurate forecasting of the response of travel demand to
changes in the transportation system is required in planning and
evaluating future transportation strategy. The present research sought to
develop a comprehensive activity-based travel demand modeling
system in order to make travel demand forecasting more accurate and
realistic as well as easy to use. The modeling system comprises four
sequential steps: lifestyle basis of activity decisions, activity generation,
destination and mode choice, and departure time choice.
Numerous attempts have been made, especially in the last ten years, to
model decision processes more realistically in formulating activity-travel
patterns. Many of these approaches are very complex and there is always
the issue of trade-offs between behavioral realism and complexity. Due
to the potential heterogeneous responses to transportation policy and
land-use planning and the diverse lifestyles of a population, it is often
advantageous to first divide individuals of a study area into several
lifestyle clusters before the development of separate activity-based travel
demand models. By doing so, the complexity of the models can be
greatly reduced and, at the same time, the activity and travel patterns can
be implicitly considered.
There has been considerable research conducted over the last 20 years
focused on trip/activity generation. The statistical models commonly
applied are of two main types. One is discrete choice models and the
other is count data models. There is little discussion in the literature
comparing different statistical modeling approaches or identifying which
statistical models are most appropriate for modeling trip/activity
generation data. The current dissertation compares the two model
systems to identify which one can give a more realistic representation of
the patterns of activities performed by suburban residents.
Once an individual has decided on his/her activity type, choosing a
suitable destination and transportation mode follows. People are
assumed to select a destination first and then choose a particular
transportation mode to the destination. In the current dissertation, the
destination choice and mode choice given the destination are modeled
by using a generalized logit model and a binary logit model separately.
Finally, a Bayesian theorem is used to develop an activity-based travel
demand model that incorporates the interrelationship between
activity-type, destination and mode choices.
Departure time is the next decision. The current study formulates and
applies a random-coefficients Cox hazard model to analyze departure
time choice for non-workers in the context of daily activity schedules.
The model recognizes the presence of unobserved heterogeneity
affecting departure time decisions by means of random-coefficients.
Nonparametric and parametric approaches are used separately to
estimate the parameters. In addition, the model uses a non-parametric
baseline hazard distribution which does not impose any a priori
parametric form on the departure time distribution. All of these analyses
provide valuable insights into our understanding of the determinants of
departure time choice.
The dissertation concludes with a discussion on modeling summaries
and provides some recommendations for future study.|
|Online Catalog Link: ||http://lib.cityu.edu.hk/record=b3008234|
|Appears in Collections:||MS - Doctor of Philosophy |
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