All things are under control: the applications of mathematical modeling in SARS

Abstract

In this paper we fulfilled four tasks. So we divide our paper into corresponding four sections. According to the request, we discuss the strongpoint and weakness of the given model in the first section. In the third section, we discuss the effect of the SARS on tourism of Beijing. And there is a demotic essay on the essentiality of the mathematical model for infectious diseases in the last section of the paper. The core section is the second section, which is to develop our new model. We accomplish it by dividing it into three parts. First, we use a deterministic ODE (Ordinary Differential Equation) model of SARS to predict the tendency of epidemic situation and to provide information for the prevention and controlling of SARS. Then we draw some graphs to compare estimated data and reported data to test the precision of our model in virtue of MATLAB. Also we analyze the effect of intervention of government and health agency on the transmission of SARS from the graphs. In the end, we discuss the advantage and shortness of the new model.